to jwgh's talk.bizarre writings 

Message-ID: <1ehvvps.1ebs9je5aoku8N%jwgh@earthlink.net>
Newsgroups: talk.bizarre
Subject: Re: twelve
From: "Jacob W. Haller" <jwgh at earthlink.net>
Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2000 17:01:25 -0400
Sparrowhawk <torpescence at hotmail.com> wrote:

KNOT ONE

If this sentence is true, then the percent chance of Emily having 8 children is equal to the limit as x --> 0 of the expression x(9x+6) / x. If this sentence is true, the percent chance of Emily having 7 kids is equal to the last two digits of the year that Timothy Leary died. If the percent chance of Emily having 8 kids is less than her chance of having 7 kids, than the percent chance of Emily having 6 kids is greater than the percentage chance of her having 8 kids. Otherwise, both percentages are the same. The percent chance of Emily having 9 kids is 1500 times her chance of being born with a third nipple subtracting her chances of having 6 kids.

Questions:

  1. What are Emily's chances of having 8 children?
  2. How great is the magnitude of the difference in Emily's chances of having 8 and 7 children?
  3. Is Emily's chance of having 9 children less than one third her chance of having 8 children?

LESSON #1: NUMBERS HAVE MEANINGS.

6% of all Emilies have 8 children. 6% of all Emilies have had or will have 8 children at some point in their life. Historically 6% of all women have had 8 children and the number of children a woman has is not affected significantly by what name she was given at birth or by what name she chose for herself at a later date. This particular woman happens to be named Emily and based on demographic information of her age, sexual history, etc. etc. etc. she is 6% likely to have 8 children. A close study of the quantum particles that currently make up the universe indicates that there is a 6% chance that at some point in the future there will be one extremely large conglomeration of particles which will be referred to as "Emily" and eight smaller collections which will be referred to as "Emily's children".

LESSON #2: SOME NUMBERS HAVE MORE MEANINGS THAN OTHERS.

If all you know is that Emily has eight kids then putting the question of adoption aside (but why should I put the question of adoption aside?) the chance that she previously had seven kids is 100% minus the chance that the last two kids were twins minus the chance the last three kids were triplits minus the chance that the last four kids were quadruplets minus the chance that the last five kids were quintuplets minus the chance that the last six kids were sextuplets minus the chance that the last seven kids were septuplets minus the chance that all eight kids were octuplets. Does she have a long history of taking fertility drugs? What percentage of women named Emily at this point in history have a long history of taking fertility drugs?

LESSON #3: SOME NUMBERS ARE MEANINGLESS.

Are the numbers of your questions indicitive of a natural, predetermined order or are they just handy markers which could have been replaced with the more pedestrian asterisk? No matter. The answers to your questions are:
  1. There are more chances than you would guess.
  2. The magnitude is most excellent.
  3. There is not enough information to tell.
-jwgh 
-- 
"If you make this sound when you kiss, you are probably hurting people."
  - Stinking Fish <titurel at cybertours.com> on talk.bizarre 16 March 2000

to jwgh's talk.bizarre writings